From Hunches to Hypotheses

We’re currently running a project with a client looking after a company filled with scientists.

I was reminded of something powerful while working with them.

The value of science-backed thinking. The discipline of hypothesis thinking.

A scientist doesn’t know what the future holds. They want to discover, explore and test. They need to. And so they will define a hypothesis and go about testing that hypothesis until it’s proved or disproved.

A friend of mine told me a number of years ago:

“If you don’t want things to stay the same, something needs to change.”

Pretty obvious. But useful to prompt a reflection: where is your current trajectory leading you? Or your team’s trajectory? Or your company’s trajectory?

If you’re a leader, you’re guiding a team into uncharted territory in pursuit of a future ambition.

In that sense, you’re a scientist.

Exploring the unknown

Here’s a way to visualise a journey into the uncharted future.

You are at point A. The as-is state.

You want to move to point B. The to-be state. Also known as the ambition, the dream, the BHAG.

How will you get there? If you can see where you need to get to, you can set out in a direction to get there. This is almost like railroad tracks. Each track is a choice. And together, they form your strategy. It’s a set of coherent choices to explore an unknown path in pursuit of a defined ambition.

The challenge is this: because the path is unknown, you can’t plot the entire route. You can only plot the next step.

That’s why you need a hypothesis.

Creating hypothesis thinking

Strategy execution is a journey of testing hypotheses.

You believe the best way to get to B is through a particular strategic route.

Run a small experiment and see if the route plays out in the way you expected it to.

If it does, run the next experiment.

If it doesn’t, the experiment must define how you’ll get back on track.

Too often, we want different outcomes without being willing to change the inputs.

We want more growth, higher employee engagement, faster turnaround times and better conversion rates.

With hypothesis thinking, you need to constantly change the inputs to impact the outcomes.

But just like any scientific experiment, your hypotheses need the right conditions to be tested effectively.

Five starting steps to create the environment for hypotheses

Teams and employees need to be comfortable to run tests. Within bounds of course – let’s not burn down the lab!

Here are five prompts to consider:

Methodical iterations
- We need methodical iterations and not mindless repetitions.
- Make the next step as small as possible. If you have a 5 year strategy, what will you do in the next 3 months to test whether that strategy will materialise in the way you expect it to?
- This is about shrinking the experiment until it becomes testable within the real world of your operations.
Minimise consequences
- There are two ways to do this.
- One: Run small experiments. That way, if something doesn’t work, it’s easy to recover.
- Two: Create a culture where failed experiments don’t lead to blame. Remove the negative consequences.
Keep accountability
- Even if all financial and career consequences are removed, accountability still exists.
- Accountability means an individual made a commitment, and they pursued that commitment. Whether they reach it or not is less important than what they did to pursue it.
Provide leadership
- In the midst of execution, it’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture.
- Leaders, mentors and coaches can help set your sights on point B again. And guide us towards the most appropriate next step based on their experience.
Embrace learnings
- Force yourself to stop after each iteration.
- This is difficult, because you want to run faster and grow more. But you need to stop and capture the learning.
- We don’t learn from experience; we learn from reflecting on experience.